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Just 48 hours to go.

England's first Test in Australia begins on the morning of Friday.

Drawing on analysis from CricViz, we look at where the most eagerly-anticipated Ashes series in years could be won and lost.

It's tough to make runs, right?

Batsmen on each side of the Ashes divide might be wondering why they are even planning to turn up.

Much of the build-up has focused on the perceived challenge of scoring runs, especially for the opening match on a Perth pitch labeled a "green monster".

When it comes to batting in Australia, especially against fast bowling, no country has been more difficult in which to score runs over the last five years.

Two key factors for this: pitches and cricket balls.

Taken as a collective, the pitches produced in Australia have recently proved to be the quickest, highest bouncing and among the least predictable in the world.

Pace and variable bounce are the perfect recipe for tough batting.

A common belief from England's cricketing circles paints the Kookaburra ball used in this country as a useless tool for a pace bowler.

An updated model of the Kookaburra was rolled out six years ago, resulting in more seam movement.

Seam is a more significant asset than swing bowling in Australian conditions.

Since the new Kookaburra, fast bowlers are conceding 25 runs per wicket in Australia.

Test cricket is about problem solving.

When bowlers dominate, performances of batters can be the difference, and the reverse is true.

If this Ashes be dominated by the ball, a batsman could have the opportunity to be the difference between the two teams.

What's going on with the Australian pace attack?

For once, England have toured Australia with their pace attack largely intact, while the home side are the ones hit by injuries.

Captain Pat Cummins will be absent for the first Test with a back issue, and Josh Hazlewood is unavailable for an unknown period because of a hamstring problem.

Pat Cummins, Hazlewood and Starc were first paired as a three-pronged attack for the 2017-18 Ashes.

From that point, they have taken together 81% of the wickets taken by Australia pace bowlers in matches in Australia.

Australia have seldom needed alternatives because of the success and robustness of the 'big three'.

When Australia have required support, Boland has been outstanding, taking 62 wickets in 14 matches at an average below 17.

Aside from Boland, other bowlers of Australia's supporting cast have stepped up.

Neser, Jhye Richardson and Pattinson all average below 30 in domestic Tests.

The last time Australia entered a home Test without both key bowlers, and lost, was in the year 2012.

The past two times they have competed in Australia without the duo, they have won by a combined 694 runs, featuring a win against England in the Adelaide Test previously.

In infrequent cases Australia have had to look beyond their superstar pacemen, results have remained strong – The tourists should pay attention.

Challenging Openings

Remember when England struggled to identify an opener to go alongside Alastair Cook?

Cook changed partners more quickly than Watford go through managers.

Not anymore.

Since Ben Duckett and Zak Crawley were united at the top of the England order at the close of 2022, no batting partnership in the world has produced more runs together.

Their success as a combination has been a factor in Crawley being supported through some inconsistent times.

The Kent man, who famously struck the first ball of the last Ashes series for four, has also been identified as having the technique for Australia.

His batting average increases when the pace increases.

By contrast, the Australian opening lineup is in a constant state of flux, yet to fill the gap left by David Warner.

Following Warner's retirement at the beginning of 2024, Usman Khawaja has batted with five various openers in 15 Tests.

Yet to debut Weatherald looks set to become the sixth opener in 16 on Friday, giving Australia an all-left-handed opening combo.

It is not just the openers that has caused problems for Australia.

Marnus Labuschagne, Australia's regular number three, was moved to open for the WTC final, then dropped entirely.

Domestic form has brought him back, probably returning to number three.

Across seven matches in the current year, Australia's top three average a collective of 25.37.

Only the opening trios of Zimbabwe and West Indies have performed worse.

Battle of Spin

For two so evenly-matched teams, there is one area where Australia are clearly stronger – spin bowling.

Nathan Lyon of Australia, with 562 Test wickets of him, is one of the finest finger-spin bowlers to play the game.

England's Shoaib Bashir is a moderately successful gamble, appearing out of touch after a broken finger, while Jacks is mainly a batsman.

It would seem logical for the home team to want Lyon at the front, but bowling spin has been incredibly hard work in Australia for the past 10 years.

In that time, spinners have averaged almost 44 in this country, albeit Lyon's record holds up well compared to the difficulties of visiting tweakers.

Lyon's other issue is actually bowling enough overs.

Remember the effectiveness of fast bowling?

It is reducing the time Lyon has with the ball.

In the 2017-18 Ashes here, Lyon was averaging 50 overs per Test.

Last year, in five matches against the Indian team, it was only half as many.

Tests in Australia are lasting about 25% less time since the new Kookaburra was brought in, meaning Lyon has fewer opportunities to influence the game.

Favorable Conditions?

England have a unfortunate tendency of being defeated in an away Ashes before Father Christmas has loaded his sleigh.

Traditionally, the series began in the Gabba, where they have failed to win since the year 1986.

In recent times, that has been followed with a floodlit Test in Adelaide Oval.

The visitors have one win in seven pink-ball Tests worldwide, while the hosts have triumphed in 13 out of 14.

Then on to Perth, a city England have visited 14 times since 1970 and emerged victorious only once, against a depleted Australia in 1978.

On this tour, the first three stops on the itinerary are the same, only in a rearranged order and under different circumstances.

Perth stages an series opener for the first time, not at the famous Waca – site of past English struggles – but the shiny new Perth Stadium.

It remains a difficult task, though one the tourists approach with no past burdens.

The Gabba is the venue for the second match, the day-nighter.

The last time Australia played a day-night Test at the Brisbane, they were surprised by the West Indies.

Similarly, the Australians are now unaccustomed to playing daytime Tests at the typical floodlit ground Adelaide Oval.

In the two red-ball matches played in the City of Churches since 2014, Australia were defeated once, to the Indian team, in 2018.

The re-jigged schedule gives England a new opportunity at starting an away Ashes well, albeit with pitfalls.

The home side have won four out of five matches played at Perth Stadium, though the one defeat came in the latest game – against India last year.

Every Test at the new ground has been won by the team batting first.

The English often complicate floodlit Tests, when data suggest the pink cricket ball does not behave very differently from its red counterpart.

The challenge in {day-night matches|